predictions

Prediction Fatigue

January 24th, 2007

Last year, after the 2006 Canadian election, I made the four political predictions. Here they are, with the results:

Prediction Result
a grand coalition government between the Liberals and Conservatives! WRONG: something closer to an unlikely coalition between the Conservatives and NDP is shaping up
Ujjal Dosanjh as the next leader of the Liberals! WRONG: as ably predicted by Sacha, the winner was Stephane Dion.
more photos of Peter MacKay looking forlornly at Belinda Stronach! WRONG: but Condi Rice? Eh? Eh?
or even better, she crosses the floor again so that she can once again join a party that is actually in power! WRONG: though she did change her hair colour

After the 2007 Macworld Expo where nobody had a stake in the predictions they made as to whether Apple would announce a mobile phone, I realized that a prediction market, wouldn't work for product releases, because people would squabble about definitions. It's a tablet! It's a computer! That happens to have a phone!

I'm pretty sure I want one, since everybody else does (with the iPhone, mobile phones, already a status symbol, just consolidated their power over us), though it won't document my world quite like a Nokia N95 would. I had more to say about the iPhone, and wanted to point to people like Mark or Dave (which I wanted to do in a separate post titled, cleverly, "iCurmudgeon") but instead, I'll just say that I think I'm over my prediction fatigue and will go back to using lines from rap songs as my weblog's taglines.

Where Are the Apple Macworld or other Steve Jobs Keynote Prediction Markets?

January 8th, 2007

With all the predictions and anti-predictions of an Apple iPhone, I have to wonder how much people actually lose if they're wrong.

2007 Predictions

January 1st, 2007

As Matt says, “I love prediction posts because they get people’s imaginations going.”

  • Flickr will implement rel="nofollow". Specifically either a META tag on external links, whether on user profile or in photo annotation, description or comments. This to counter its use to increase search engine ranking. (I know people do it because I do it.) So will Upcoming.org. del.icio.us already does it.
  • No affordable plans for truly unlimited Internet on mobile phones for Canadians in 2007. (I define "affordable" as $100 or less per month.) I've given up hope.

Possibly more as they occur to me, this first day of 2007.

2006 will be the year of XMPP »

Jabber's "a generalized XML message passing protocol optimized for real-time."

Drupal community's predictions for 2006 »

My (self-fulfilling) prediction: I will drop the "not" from my repeated claims that "I'm not a Drupal developer".
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