Niall Ferguson: “Europe will turn out to be not an empire in the sense that I think the United States is today--that is to say, an expansive geopolitical entity--not a rival or a competitor or a counterweight to the United States, but almost its antithesis, something that is drawing political energies into it, that is perhaps even being colonized by exogenous forces.”
Ferguson argues that Europe as a whole can be seen as an equal trading partner to the United States, although perhaps not on a per capita level. Europe may even have a similar political structure: a federal system with a high court with equal powers to that of the United States Supreme Court. All that said, calling Europe an "impire", Ferguson argues that Europe and its institutions will decline in power, but not disappear. The German economy is “unhealthy” and “an unhealthy Germany is an unhealthy European economy.” And while productivity per hour is very similar between Western Europe and the United States, the workers from latter work longer and a larger percentage of Americans—people, that is, not just the subset of people that are workers—participate in the economy and therefore its economy produces more. He is also skeptical as to whether the former Communist bloc has benefited as much as it should have after liberation. Ferguson also argues that much of European integration has been done on Germany's dime, and Germany is under-represented in European Parliament and Council of Ministers, not only in terms of population but also—and strikingly so—in terms of how much of the European budget is paid for by German taxpayers.
Ferguson also has a cultural argument explaining the decline of Europe. He notes that Europe's median age is increasing faster than that of the United States. Speaking to the audience, mostly university students, it seems, he alludes to the fiscal overstretch the United States is facing, and says that Europe is facing a far worse situation. Allowing Turkey into the European Union might be a solution, as he notes that even the last argument—that Europe is fundamentally a Christian continent—is de facto untrue. Immigration, although it will be resisted, is the solution to declining economies and rising ages.
