election 2006

Prediction Fatigue

Last year, after the 2006 Canadian election, I made the four political predictions. Here they are, with the results:

Prediction Result
a grand coalition government between the Liberals and Conservatives! WRONG: something closer to an unlikely coalition between the Conservatives and NDP is shaping up
Ujjal Dosanjh as the next leader of the Liberals! WRONG: as ably predicted by Sacha, the winner was Stephane Dion.
more photos of Peter MacKay looking forlornly at Belinda Stronach! WRONG: but Condi Rice? Eh? Eh?
or even better, she crosses the floor again so that she can once again join a party that is actually in power! WRONG: though she did change her hair colour

After the 2007 Macworld Expo where nobody had a stake in the predictions they made as to whether Apple would announce a mobile phone, I realized that a prediction market, wouldn't work for product releases, because people would squabble about definitions. It's a tablet! It's a computer! That happens to have a phone!

I'm pretty sure I want one, since everybody else does (with the iPhone, mobile phones, already a status symbol, just consolidated their power over us), though it won't document my world quite like a Nokia N95 would. I had more to say about the iPhone, and wanted to point to people like Mark or Dave (which I wanted to do in a separate post titled, cleverly, "iCurmudgeon") but instead, I'll just say that I think I'm over my prediction fatigue and will go back to using lines from rap songs as my weblog's taglines.

Election 2006 Results (Including Burnaby-Douglas)

Bill Siksay returned to office in my riding of Burnaby-Douglas. I'm a long-time federal New Democrat (independent provincially, at the moment), and supported, if silently, his candidacy. The following is the table from Elections Canada (I encourage those who want official results to visit the website and search for the riding's results, for I'd hate for someone to search for 'election results burnaby-douglas 2006' and have them uncritically cite the numbers I give here):

Party Candidate Votes %
Communist Timothy George Gidora 153 0.3
Conservative George Drazenovic 13,466 27.6
Green Party Ray Power 1,694 3.5
Liberal Bill Cunningham 16,079 33.0
N.D.P. Bill Siksay 17,323 35.6

There should be an election results microformat. (Couldn't resist.)

With some satisfaction I note the defeat of Sam Bulte in Parkdale-High Park. Kudos to Joey who wrote extensively about her relationship with copyright interests. (I kind of wish he had a category just of articles about her, so that he could own her on Google.) A little disappointing, though, since that the phrase "pro-user zealot" will fade into history, but I have to wonder, did she misspeak. I'd never heard the phrase before, but can't think of any word replacing 'user' that she could use to describe those who argue for an alternative, more flexible copyright regime.

As you probably know, the Conservatives won a minority, and might align with the Bloc to govern. If only there were some electoral system that gave you the same percentage of seats as votes you got in the election.

Outlandish predictions:

  • a grand coalition government between the Liberals and Conservatives!
  • Ujjal Dosanjh as the next leader of the Liberals!
  • more photos of Peter Mackay looking forlornly at Belinda Stronach!
  • or even better, she crosses the floor again so that she can once again join a party that is actually in power!

At last night's election counting party, I saw my dad on CHEK TV last night, as Darren flipped the TV at the bar to find something other than CBC coverage. That's 5 seconds of fame deducted from his (my dad's) account.

George Drazenovich campaign flyer features a photo of Haystack Rock, Oregon
He's the Conservative Party candidate for Burnaby-Douglas, and has promoted wind power.
Star Trek as Canadian politics
No major party finds themselves matched with Star Trek: The Next Generation.

Inane

To update my article about Burnaby-Douglas candidates blogging, it appears that Bill Cunningham's site is now a weblog, which Robert at Burnaby Politics calls inane. He and/or the staffer writing the weblog is using Blogger, so you can subscribe to his Atom feed. Conservative candidate George Drazinovich's weblog is up and running, but with no permalinks and no feed? NDP Candidate Bill Siksay and Green candidate Ray Power (not Ian Gregson as reported in my article last month) appear not to be blogging.

I've been relying on the aforementioned Burnaby Politics weblog for coverage of the candidates for the riding in which I live.

A True "Canadian Federal Election 2.0"

Brian Lamb: <q cite="http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/brian/archives/021100.html"">[a] thing to keep in mind when assessing how politicos use blogs is that while blogs prize candour, informality and spontaneity, those qualities can be death to a politician. Citizens can complain about candidates spewing talking points like automatons all we want, but face it, every time a politician goes "off message" it is usually framed as a gaffe, and is exploited to the advantage of her or his opponent.

Timothy Ng: “Since there's no chance that any of the other parties can hope to form any sort of government with the current perceptions that the general public has, I've devised an accurate assessment of each party. I shall have a peek into the source code of each party's website and have a look at their coding practices as well as the usability of the site in Mozilla Firefox on a Linux machine.”

Checking the source code of the HTML version of websites to see if it validates feels a little too old-school: table-free XHTML/CSS layouts are, to a large degree, the norm for new websites, and weblogs can claim at least partial responsibility for that, as the proof-of-concept for larger, less dynamic sites. More interesting these days are whether the parties are using RSS to let people syndicate and aggregate and even remix what they are producing in terms of a campaign message. The word 'remix' is no doubt frightening to political parties, who are more interested in getting the undiluted message out there than having someone use their video or audio or writing in a way or in a context they disagree with. But at least they might be interested in 'remix' in the fair use sense, of bloggers, podcasters and other Internet-based media doing their own reporting and bypassing large media organizations that just don't get it.

Tris Hussey: “There should be great, witty, partisan blogs on each of the official party websites and links to un-official (but supportive) blogs too. How about a nice OPML file of all the blogs supporting a particular party? That would be cool.”

I add emphasis to Tris' words because I think he has it half-right: parties and candidates should be linking to supportive weblogs, but also unsupportive ones, that is, weblogs that are either negatively against the party or for an opposing party, but also to weblogs by undecided or apathetic bloggers. I'm not undecided, but I still appreciated Ian Gregson leaving me a short note via my contact form. Of course he has an agenda, but rather than say "vote for me because I believe in a woman's right to choose"—no idea whether he believes that or not, just using that as an example—he effectively "I'm running for Parliament, let me know if you have any questions". So rather than linking to those who already support you, join and participate in the conversation, which includes those who aren't voting for you but might. That would make this a true "Canadian Federal Election 2.0", a change not necessarily in the technology being used but how parties and candidates reach out to their potential employers.

Robert Burnaby took a look at Burnaby-Douglas candidate websites, just as I did a couple days ago. This isn't the breakout year for parties and candidates using weblogs and other "Web 2.0" tools to get their message across, but at least, as Timothy points out, at least one party (NDP) is using an open source platform with RSS feeds, if not in a terribly informal voice.

The Only Candidate Seriously Blogging In Burnaby-Douglas

Ian Gregson: “This week the Prime Minister announced the date of next federal election. The big news here is that I will be running as Green Party candidate in Burnaby Douglas. My election web site is http://voteforian.com I intend to run this election campaign using bike power and public transportation only.”

My sympathies lie elsewhere on the political left, but Ian found me through a search for Burnaby-Douglas and sent me a brief email simply making note of the fact that he's the riding's Green Party candidate. He appears to be the only candidate seriously blogging in my riding—and not just about the election, but about his experiences after giving up his car and commuting in Greater Vancouver by bicycle or public transit (or both).

The other candidates do not (yet?) have serious weblogs. Bill Cunningham as a weblog-like website, but no RSS feed or permanent links. Bill Siksay does not appear to be blogging at all (if I were volunteering my time and advice to the NDP—disclosure: I am—I would have a weblog for each riding on their Drupal-powered website). George Drazenovich, whom the Conservatives list as their candidate, and who had a campaign weblog last year, has yet to update his site in 2005 (the Burnaby-Douglas Conservative Association has yet to update their calendar for January to reflect the fact that the country is holding an election on the 23rd).

Time passes after writing the above and Gregson writes to me that he will not run in the 2006 election.